Probability as logic for decisionmaking

Use cases of Bayesian decision logic in business

This letter, the third in the series, and a shorter one(!) will focus on applications in business, generalising out from the examples given in the previous letter.

The following is a short list, in alphabetical order, of applications of the approach described in my letters:

  • Acceptance testing for HVM products and services
  • A/B Testing – Is A more desirable/higher value than B?
    • Climate rational degrees of belief in given change, uncertainty in predictions
    • Cricket, baseball: sports analysis
    • Customer arrival and resources management
    • Customer lifetime (CLT) and CLT value
  • Decision-making
  • Economics and econometrics
  • Ensemble forecasting
  • Environmental regulation fulfilment, controls
  • Game theory strategies of option decisionmaking
  • Geopolitics
  • Human resources selection/hire/no-hire decisionmaking
  • Healthcare: Medical diagnosis, disease/infection risk, vaccination and course of action
  • Healthcare: therapeutics: to treat or not to treat
  • Cancer prognosis, early detection of disease, lives saved for investment, funding, business purpose cases
  • ‘Darwin’s data’
  • Justice, jurisprudence, case proposition proof or denial via weights of evidence
  • Law, generally
  • Machine or product lifetime
  • Market forecasting and risk-modelling
  • Marketing focus decisionmaking
  • Military applications: strategy, defence systems, offence, purchasing, logistics, war/peace games
  • Mineral resource prospecting and archeology
  • Negotiation
  • Preference ranking and prioritisation in logic
  • Product widget improves product system: ‘with or without’?
  • Political research: election result prediction
  • Policy analysis
  • Pricing strategy
  • Profitability (utility) of options
  • Psychometrics
  • Relative odds of two or more options, and resolution of decisions
  • Quality control
  • Quantifying confirmation via evidence
  • Sales cycle time and other time measures for accounting, management accounting, auditing and executive and stakeholder transparency
  • Strategy or tactical decision logic
  • Supply chain management and logistics
  • Time-to-market (e.g. POC, Beta, MVP, first sale, mass adoption) for accounting, management accounting, auditing and executive and stakeholder transparency
  • Strategy or tactical decision logic
  • Understanding biases in intuition (say, 10 option scores 1-10, e.g. trusted, observed average is 7, how do we assign the probabilities of each score 1-10, adding the least info?)
  • Verification (confirmation or infirmation)
  • Technical diplomacy
  • Venture Capital, valuation estimation for investment choices
  • Weather, forecasting and severity

If you are in any of the areas above or in things apparently parallel, and might like to try decisionmaking using extended probability logic, please let me know! It’d great to talk. Please send an email, to the author of this blog, via: ‘cir’ which is at ‘cantab’ dot ’n e t’

CIR > Bayes Task Group > Letter 3 (of 9)